Strategy Track
A four-phase program for leadership teams that must decide under deep uncertainty. Each phase produces one artifact that feeds the next.
- 4 phases
- Leadership teams
- AI companion
- 01A Promise that fits on one page.
- 02A move that fits in one sentence.
- 03A matrix that fits on one wall.
- 04A memo that fits on one sheet.
The challenge
Strategy under deep uncertainty, where forecasts fail and decisions still have to be made.
How it works
Four phases. Each one feeds the next.
- Phase 01
The Promise
Why the group exists, written as one sentence: What · Why · Who.
OutputA one-sentence Promise - Phase 02
The Bet
Each business scored for fit and value, with one move written as “from X to Y by date Z.”
OutputOne strategic move per business - Phase 03
Four Futures
Trends → drivers → two axes → four scenarios, each with a proper-noun name, never an adjective.
OutputFour named futures - Phase 04
The Wager
Every move tested against the four futures.
OutputFund · Seed · Redesign · Retire
Frameworks behind it
Built on the classics.
- Peter DruckerPurpose · The Promise
- Goold, Campbell & AlexanderParenting advantage · The Bet
- John KotterLeading change · The Bet
- Pierre Wack & Peter SchwartzScenario planning · Four Futures
- Avinash Dixit & Robert PindyckReal options · The Wager
- The Wager TestRafael's own synthesis
What participants leave with
One page. One decision.
A one-page Strategic Decision Memo that includes:
- A roadmap
- The first 100 days
- The Capital · Cover · Coordination ask
AI companion
An app runs all four phases live in the room.
Where it has run
Tested with senior leaders.
Delivered through IE to senior managers and C-level leaders of a national holding company.
Bring the Strategy Track to your team.
Based in Madrid. Working across Latin America, Europe and the GCC, in English and Spanish.